NY's grid operator spots an energy reliability shortfall in 2033

New York's energy reliability is narrowing as power plants are aging, demand is expected to increase and the zero-emission mandates are nearing.

By Brendan J. Lyons,  Managing Editor

 

Nov 25, 2024

 

The control room of the New York Independent System Operator, which oversees the state's power grid. Energy reliability is narrowing as power plants are aging and not being replaced, demand is expected to increase, and the zero-emission mandates of the state's Climate Act are looming.

Courtesy NYISO

 

ALBANY — The ability of New York’s energy grid to adequately handle future electricity needs is narrowing as power plants are aging and not being replaced, demand is expected to increase, and the zero-emission mandates of the state’s Climate Act are looming, according to a biennial assessment conducted recently by the New York Independent System Operator.

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“So we’re adding a lot of load, projected to add a lot of load in the future, but we’re retiring generation, and we’re not adding new generation fast enough and commensurate enough to close the gap,” said Kevin Lanahan, a vice president with the not-for-profit organization that’s tasked with operating and managing New York’s power grid.

 

Gas shortages also are expected to add stress to the future winter power supplies over the next decade during cold snaps.

 

The sobering prognosis released last week comes as green energy advocates are ramping up pressure on lawmakers to maintain the mandates of New York’s 2019 Climate Act; business and energy interests are supportive of the zero-emission goals but also calling for a full assessment of the costs and whether the mandates can be met — especially without causing crippling repercussions.

 

A significant variable that lawmakers did not account for when they passed the 2019 Climate Act is the recent massive expansion in New York of the manufacturing sectors that develop semiconductors, crypto currency and data centers. 

 

“So we see them, we see how big they are, we see how many there are, and we’re starting to understand electrically what it’s going to require to accommodate all that,” Lanahan said. “And all this wrapped up into one is really driving a sharp increase in the future peak demand on the system and the reliability margins, going back to how we operate the system, and the metrics there are shrinking. … We’re not adding enough generation, we keep relying on the units that are already there, but they’re getting really old.”

 

The assessment conducted by NYISO every two years evaluates the reliability of New York’s grid over the next decade. The last assessment, conducted in 2022, had flagged that economic changes, extreme weather and other factors would create future challenges that may require action to avoid interruptions in electric service.

 

NY Renews, a progressive coalition of faith, labor and community groups, wrote a letter to Gov. Kathy Hochul in late October imploring her administration to stay the course on the Climate Act mandates, citing fatal extreme weather events as well as environmental pollution they say is causing widespread health problems.

“Not only does the Climate Law commit us to achieve the pollution reductions within the time frame that climate scientists tell us we must meet, but it also ensures that we prioritize equity and justice for those on the front lines of the climate crisis as we transform our entire economy from one powered by fossil fuels to one powered by clean renewable energy,” the group wrote. “Full implementation of the Climate Law will dramatically reduce air pollution, and thereby lower the rates of asthma, cardiovascular disease, and other respiratory ailments that plague millions of New Yorkers. It will keep billions of dollars in our local economies instead of sending them out of state to import fossil fuels.”

 

Another coalition, led by the Business Council of New York State, have been countering that message by noting the mandates, which include having 70% renewable electricity sources by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2040, are unattainable and on a collision course with reality.

 

The business group recently urged Hochul to conduct a “deep analysis” of the state’s future energy needs and supplies, including options for nuclear power plants, as the initial mandates of the 2019 Climate Act are nearing and serious concerns have been raised about the ability to meet those goals.

 

The ramped up outreach to the governor followed state officials unveiling at an energy summit in September that nuclear reactors and similar technology may need to be an integral part of New York’s clean energy goals. That was a central topic at the summit in Syracuse that was convened by Hochul’s administration as state leaders have begun to acknowledge it will be difficult to meet the mandates of the 2019 Climate Act.

 

'Getting really old'

 

The recent assessment by NYISO found that a reliability need is expected to begin in New York City in the summer of 2033 that “continues to demonstrate a very concerning decline in statewide resource margins such that by 2034 no surplus power would remain without further resource development.”

 

The assessment says expected increases in peak demand — along with limited supplies and state lawmakers' decision to start shutting down small gas plants — are among the factors contributing to the forecast.

 

In the backdrop, Lanahan said, many of the state’s power generators are approaching 70 years old with no clear picture of how long they may last.

 

“For stress, we’re not adding enough generation; we keep relying on the units that are already there, but they’re getting really old,” he said. “We do a calculus there on the probability of breakdowns, and that keeps going up. So that added cushion, it’s like an insurance policy. I don’t like to call it that, but it gives you added megawatts to bring on to the system in those emergency situations. We have less of that cushion on a local basis and then statewide.”

 

Some of those who attended the energy summit in Syracuse two months ago said the enormous price tag for establishing nuclear power options was noted, but that regulators and other state officials have declined for years to calculate what would be the potential costs for consumers and businesses of a transition to zero-emission technologies.

 

Lanahan said that future winter seasons are presenting the most challenges. Solar installations have been robust, he said, especially for residences and small commercial projects that are “behind the meter,” but in the winter months solar generation declines as the sun is lower in the sky and days are shorter.

 

Some lawmakers, including New York's congressional members who have supported doling out billions of dollars in federal aid to chip fab expansions at Micron Technologies in Rochester and GlobalFoundries in Malta, among others, have asserted that “clean energy” will be able to power those facilities, even as industry stakeholders have said that’s not possible in the next couple decades. And Lanahan noted the reliability margins a decade from now continue to look challenging.

“We don’t want to lose this economic development, and we want to keep the system reliable, but we’re adding load, and again, just not enough generation right now to show with the easy math that we’re ready,” he said, adding the NYSIO is beginning to plan for addressing the 2033 reliability gap.

 

Two years ago, during a cold winter snap, power generators in the New York City area switched off their gas and used oil reserves to deal with the surge in heating requirements so that natural gas could continue flowing across upstate New York. 

 

“Without that ability to switch the New York City power plants over to oil in that situation, we would be in the same trouble as the rest of the nation,” Lanahan said. “And it’s a story that’s been, you know, (discussed) amongst the industry folks and the reliability organizations.”

 

In an interview with the Times Union in August, Doreen M. Harris, president and CEO of the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, confirmed that advanced nuclear technologies would be on the agenda at the September energy summit and that they would release their draft blueprint for that proposal.

 

Harris had said the technologies are “timely to investigate ... in large part because not only of the market shifts that we’ve seen in bringing these technologies to commercialization, but also in the robust support by the federal government, and I want to say, bipartisan support from the federal government in considering these assets.”

 

Some environmental groups have pushed back on the nuclear option or any delays of the Climate Act mandates, noting that the development of those plants could take years beyond the dates set for the lower- and zero-emission goals.

 

In July, the state comptroller’s office issued an audit that found New York’s Public Service Commission relied on outdated data and made miscalculations about the state’s ability to reach the Climate Act’s energy mandates, including failing to develop a backup plan for not meeting those goals.

 

Power industry experts over the past year have said at the time the 2019 legislation was passed, there was no analysis done on what was achievable and at what cost, and no real plan for pulling away from a power grid that’s more than 70 years old. While renewable energy sources power much of upstate, more than 85 percent of electricity being supplied to New York City and Long Island is from gas and oil.

Nov 25, 2024

Brendan J. Lyons

Managing Editor

Brendan J. Lyons is a managing editor for the Times Union overseeing the Capitol Bureau and investigations. Lyons joined the Times Union in 1998 as a crime reporter before being assigned to the investigations team. He became editor of the investigations team in 2013 and began overseeing the Capitol Bureau in 2017. You can reach him at blyons@timesunion.com or 518-454-5547.