Trump hates wind. Is solar also in trouble?

 Solar power has been setting annual installation records for years. But in 2025, analysts at Wood Mackenzie expect that growth to screech “to a halt.”

The consulting firm predicts that the number of new global installations this year will total approximately 493 gigawatts, down from the 495 gigawatts added last year. That compares to years of double-digit annual growth.

The significant slowdown, while global, puts a spotlight on a central question facing the U.S. solar industry: How worried should solar developers be about President Donald Trump’s crackdown on wind?

Much of the flattening growth rate is because of China, which has reached its solar targets and is facing similar grid bottlenecks and transmission troubles as the U.S., said Sylvia Leyva Martinez, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie and lead author of the report. But major uncertainty is hovering over the U.S. market as well because of Trump, she said.

“We don’t have a clear view” of how much Trump’s policies will affect solar, she said, noting the analysis was conducted before the president’s numerous energy executive orders Monday. The report said solar installations will stagnate due to “post-election uncertainty, waning incentives, power sector reforms and a shift towards less ambitious climate agendas.”

Trump’s orders did not target solar directly in the same way as wind, although they could affect renewable energy broadly.

For example, Trump paused distributions from the Inflation Reduction Act and bipartisan infrastructure law, which could affect billions of dollars in potential loans from the Department of Energy and grants from EPA’s “Solar for All” program. The EPA program, which funds projects in low-income areas, was allocated $7 billion under the IRA as part of the newly created Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund.

Trump’s plans to place additional tariffs on China could also impact U.S. solar projects, which are often paired with grid batteries made in the Asian country.

In declaring an energy emergency Monday, Trump left out solar and wind in a definition of energy resources that should be tapped, emphasizing fossil fuels, biofuels and geothermal power [and nuclear.] That suggests there could be more federal assistance to other resources and increased competition for solar, said Javier Rico, a solar analyst at BloombergNEF.

At the same time, Rico said a Tuesday clarification to one of Trump’s orders appears to crack open the door for more money going out of federal coffers, since it refers to appropriations and not tax credits. The industry also was not targeted through a distinct order like wind was, as it’s not dependent on federal leasing from the Interior Department for offshore projects.

Rico said the biggest factor affecting the U.S. solar industry continues to be the fate of federal tax incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act, including incentives finalized in December that replace the existing investment tax credit for solar. While analysts have said those credits could be a major target of Republicans because of their size, it remains unclear whether Congress will overturn them.

One of the biggest challenges facing the industry — grid bottlenecks that can slow projects for years — could be more affected by rule changes from grid operators and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission than Trump, Rico said.

“Trump won’t be a disaster for solar,” Rico said.

A current bright spot for the U.S. solar industry — manufacturing — is fueled by the IRA as well. The U.S. is now in the solar manufacturing game because of tax credits, Martinez said, growing from approximately 17 gigawatts of manufacturing capacity of panels in 2023 to an expected 66 gigawatts this year.

Much of that capacity is expected to be built in red districts, she said. And solar panel prices are set to rise this year, according to the Wood Mackenzie report.

“I think it will be very difficult for a tax credit like this to just go away,” Martinez said.

Bright spots and data centers

Trump has not attacked solar in the same way that he has wind, although he’s criticized solar for its land requirements and falsely claimed the industry would harm rabbits. His previous comments that he “loves solar” were noted in a Tuesday statement to POLITICO’s E&E News from Abby Hopper, head of the Solar Energy Industries Association, after the release of the executive orders. She noted that the industry grew 128 percent in Trump’s first term.

“SEIA recently released a policy road map that aligns with many of President Trump’s priorities, including surging American solar manufacturing, cutting red tape, supporting energy freedom, and eliminating dependence on foreign adversaries for our energy needs,” Hopper said. said after criticizing wind.

The White House did However, Trump may be changing his tune on solar. In an interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News on Thursday, the president called solar “ridiculous.”

“You know what else people don’t like? … [T]hose massive solar fields built over land that covers 10 miles by 10 miles,” Trump  not respond to a request for comment.

Prior to Trump’s inauguration, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast that solar would be the leading source of growth in the power sector in 2025, increasing to 7 percent of U.S. generation from 5.6 percent last year. The industry is expected to add 26 gigawatts of new solar capacity in 2025, EIA said.

The agency also predicted that for the first time ever, renewables would provide a quarter of U.S. electricity.

Martinez said that some of the expected growth in U.S. solar comes from projects that were already in the pipeline but got stalled last year because of issues such as inadequate supplies of high-voltage equipment.

The growth in data centers because of artificial intelligence is a wild card for the industry. In the U.S., electricity demand could triple in the next three years because of AI, creating a potential boost for solar projects as well as other power sources.

It remains to be seen how much solar will benefit from the data center growth versus natural gas, Rico said. That will depend partly on the locations of data centers, and issues such as interconnection fees for gas in specific locations.

In general, he said, gas is seen as more reliable because it’s not intermittent, even though solar is cost competitive..

On Thursday, Bloomberg reported that solar will provide at least some of the power for “Stargate” — a new company backed by Trump and several technology giants that aims to spend $500 billion in four years build out AI infrastructure.

In virtual comments Thursday to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Trump reiterated that he would speed approvals of new power plants for AI facilities through his energy emergency declaration. He suggested those plants could be fueled with “clean coal” as a backup.

He also issued an executive order Thursday calling for federal agencies to rescind all policies from a 2023 Biden administration order that “are inconsistent with enhancing America’s leadership in AI.” Former President Joe Biden had ordered the development of safety guidelines for AI and called on tech companies building the most powerful AI models to share details with the government before releasing them.

Trump hates wind. Is solar also in trouble? - E&E News by POLITICO