Europe Has Been Going Cold on Net Zero

 Remember net zero? Europe’s politicians wish you’d forget, as the Continent rushes en masse for the climate-policy exits this autumn.

“Net zero” referred to the ambition to achieve zero carbon-dioxide emissions on a net basis by midcentury for purposes of averting climate change. Europe used to love this stuff, even though it was perhaps the most preposterous policy idea anyone has ever had. Undeterred by the costs, industrial carnage, scientific uncertainties and sheer futility of attempting such a thing when China and India refuse, Europe went all in on its war on carbon.

But now voters are demanding an armistice if not an outright surrender. A growing body of opinion polling and mounting anecdotal political evidence augur the collapse of this project—and sooner rather than later.

Some 39% of Britons either believe concerns about climate change have been exaggerated or don’t know, according to a startling opinion poll released this week by the Times of London (owned by the same company as this newspaper). That might not sound like much—it means 61% of respondents believe climate change is a threat—but it’s a remarkable figure given past polling. The proportion saying they definitely believe the climate threat is exaggerated (25%) has increased from 16% in 2021, despite (or maybe because of) chronic media alarmism and near-uniformity among the mainstream political class.

Yet even those voters who believe climate change is a real problem don’t believe it’s an important one. Climate has fallen far down the list of voters’ priorities in Britain, and pretty much everywhere else in Europe. In Germany, long a net-zero bastion, polling before February’s election found only 25% of voters ranked climate among their three most important issues. Subsequent polling found that 41% of respondents believe Germany should do more about climate change, down from 55% only two years ago.

Political consequences can’t be far behind. In Britain, Prime Minister Keir Starmer wants to talk about anything other than climate, as his administration has steadily scaled back various net-zero commitments and sidelined Climate Minister Ed Miliband. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is on the warpath against European Union electric-vehicle mandates that endanger the German auto industry. French President Emmanuel Macron appears to be trying to block ambitious new climate targets for the EU.

Things have finally hit a breaking point because climate advocates have by now plucked all the low-hanging policy fruit—relatively easy or cheap mandates, fees and taxes on this industry or that. Key word: “relatively,” since voters already are quailing at many of the costs. And now households are in the direct line of fire for additional climate measures.

Enlightening in that Times polling is the long list of things British voters aren’t prepared to do or pay for in pursuit of net zero. The proportion willing to pay more for international air travel to combat climate change has fallen to 48% from 57% in 2021 (and the real number will be substantially lower if any politician ever actually tries an air-travel carbon tax). The proportion willing to pay more for auto fuel has fallen to 26% from 36%, and the share willing to pay higher taxes for the climate cause has plunged.

The costs of climate warfare aren’t becoming more burdensome only quantitatively but qualitatively. People now appear to believe net-zero policies will negatively affect their jobs and the economy overall. The Times finds that only 23% of its poll respondents believe climate policy will create jobs, and more people believe climate policies will have a negative effect on the economy (30%) than a positive effect (25%).

It’s one thing if households are being asked to pay a few pounds or euros more on an energy bill, or even to drive an electric vehicle they’d ordinarily spurn. It’s another thing entirely if voters start to worry their livelihoods are imperiled. Germans tolerated idiotic climate policies for years, right up until the moment net zero started destroying the country’s prized auto industry. Now Germans are losing interest in climate in a hurry.

If the climate religion is marked by a Puritanical austerity, the political trend is becoming instead a form of Restoration libertinism across Europe. My favorite example: Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s insurgent-right National Rally, has made wider availability of air conditioning a central campaign issue. Net zero’s goose will be well-chilled, apparently, rather than cooked.

Don’t expect it to be a quiet death. The climate-industrial complex remains large, ideologically committed and financially dependent on the net-zero project and all its subsidies. One senses politicians still are feeling out how far their voters have actually recanted what for decades have been sincerely held beliefs about climate. Still, one senses a distinct change in the weather on this issue—and it isn’t getting hotter.

Europe Has Been Going Cold on Net Zero - WSJ