‘Nervous energy’: US wind and solar projects at risk as tax credits expire

Martha Muir in Penn Yan, New York

 

17 May, 2026

 

A boom in the construction of US wind and solar projects is under threat from a lack of labour and equipment and the removal of tax credits by a Trump administration hostile to renewable energy.

 

According to data from Cleanview, an energy research firm, solar capacity under construction has risen by 50 per cent since the start of 2025, while wind projects are up 60 per cent.

 

The boom is being driven by developers racing to take advantage of tax credits before they expire. President Donald Trump, who has long been opposed to solar and wind energy, gutted the incentives in his so-called “Big Beautiful Bill”.

 

Solar and wind projects must begin construction by July 4 and prove they are building continuously to qualify for the tax credits — a process known as “safe harbouring” — crunching the timeframe developers thought they would have to get projects off the ground.

 

Under Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act tax credits for solar and wind were supposed to begin phasing out at the end of 2033.

 

 

Developers say they are pushing ahead with viable projects and abandoning others that lack resources or will take too long.

 

“A lot of projects are going to die on the vine,” said Reagan Farr, chief executive of Silicon Ranch, a solar developer.

 

The fast-approaching deadline is putting projects at risk at a time when electricity demand growth is rising in the US. According to data from consultancy ICF, electricity demand is expected to grow by 25 per cent from 2025 to 2030, and 78 per cent by 2050, driven by data centres, electric vehicles and home appliances such as heat pumps.

 

“We’re ruthlessly prioritising projects that are going to make it over the deadline,” said Jorge Vargas, the departing chief executive of Aspen Power, a solar developer. [the word “ruthlessly” is used appropriately here.]

 

Developing a solar farm “takes years and years”, he said. “This arbitrary deadline was done in a very hasty way that’s jeopardising a lot of projects.”

 

Aspen has 80 megawatts under construction across the US, including a 5MW solar farm near Penn Yan in upstate New York. It has “safe harboured” its projects by designing custom electrical equipment for specific projects.

 

 

Aspen is developing a 5MW solar farm near Penn Yan in upstate New York

 

Brian Grenko, chief executive at advisory firm VDE, said that the permits developers need to build are under threat.

 

Even if a solar or wind farm is being built on private property, it may need a permit if it crosses public land to connect to power substations.

 

Developers say that under previous administrations this could have taken as little as a month. But wait times are stretching out to as long as a year because of the Trump administration’s crackdown on renewables projects on federal lands.

 

“There’s a lot of nervous energy if you’re a project that in any way, shape or form touches a federal authority,” Grenko said.

 

This uncertainty is causing issues with developers’ financing partners, said Michael Thomas, chief executive of Cleanview.

 

“Even if you feel confident you can start construction, if the bank that you’re working with to get a $100mn loan doesn’t feel comfortable, you’re not going to get that project financed,” he said.

 

Problems for developers are being compounded by competition for equipment and labour shortages.

 

 

‘Long lead times are a real challenge,’ said Noelle Paige, a vice-president of project development at Aspen [sorry – but she even looks a bit “ruthless”]

 

Canadian solar manufacturer Heliene says it is seeing an uptick in demand from companies trying to beat the July deadline, but small- to medium-size developers lack cash flow to buy ahead.

 

“Half of development that has been installed in the US in the past few years has been done by developers who do 50 to 100 megawatts per year,” said chief executive Martin Pochtaruk. “They don’t have the funds to [safe harbour] three or four years of projects.”

 

The transformer supply chain is also stretched, as data centre developers snap up the equipment crucial to power distribution as part of the AI boom. Lead times can stretch as long as 18 months.

 

“Long lead times are a real challenge,” said Noelle Paige, vice-president of project development at Aspen. “Developers have to pay for transformers 72 weeks before they arrive, tying up a lot of capital long before the project can be built and start earning revenue.”

 

The cost of labour is also rising — complicating matters for renewables developers racing to start work.

 

“There just aren’t enough electricians out there,” said Izzet Bensusan, chief executive at Captona, a clean energy investment firm. “[Contractors] know they have an uncertain future, so some of them are trying to charge more.”

 

https://www.ft.com/content/33fd64e1-f389-4205-a944-cf132ebb5037?syn-25a6b1a6=1