RENEWABLE REALISM:

 By Marie J. French and Mona Zhang

October 26, 2026

Good morning and welcome to the weekly Monday edition of the New York & New Jersey Energy newsletter. We'll take a look at the week ahead and look back on what you may have missed last week.

RENEWABLE REALISM:

There’s no clear way for New York to keep up the pace of renewable investments needed to (belatedly) achieve the state’s ambitious targets.

“Without tax credits at the federal level, nobody sees a future for building rules in New York,” said Marguerite Wells, the executive director of the Alliance for Clean Energy New York. “That's a problem. How do we solve it? I have no magic bullets.”

Wells’ bleak assessment — on the sidelines of the industry group’s fall conference in Albany — comes as the pool of new projects appears to be drying up, even as several legacy onshore solar and wind facilities enter construction. She pointed to the “tiny” number of renewable projects that have entered the upcoming New York Independent System Operator’s interconnection process.

There’s only seven solar or wind projects totaling just more than 1,000 megawatts of capacity, compared to 3,000 megawatts of new or repowered fossil fuel plants and 35 storage projects totaling nearly 6,800 megawatts. The state is still continuing to make awards to new renewable projects, but requires them to be farther along in development than in the past. That’s aimed in part at ensuring they can capture federal tax benefits.

With Hochul’s focus on affordability, it’s clear New York is leery of putting ratepayers on the hook for the full brunt of the increased costs of new renewables without federal support. And the industry is divided over whether to fight to revive the renewable tax credits that were sunsetted by President Donald Trump’s signature tax bill.

“NYSERDA staff have told me, ‘We are not backstopping ITC. [investment tax credits] Full stop. We're not,’” Wells said. “The NYISO queue tells the story. Nobody's building anything new in New York past what we've got on the boards already.”

New York has added about 2,900 megawatts of new resources, primarily renewables, to the grid since 2019, according to the NYISO. The state portfolio of contracted renewables includes more than 60 projects totaling about 7,200 megawatts that are under development, according to NYSERDA. That includes the two under construction offshore wind projects.

If all projects under contract are built, the state would only achieve about 44% renewables by 2030, according to the state’s climate dashboard.

A review of how the state procures projects is underway, which could provide the road map for how policymakers in New York can continue advancing the state’s renewable progress. Hochul’s officials maintained an upbeat view in speaking at the conference, touting progress and the governor’s continued support for clean energy.

But they also acknowledged the pressures straining the state’s ambitions.

“We are committed to leaving no stone unturned in the pursuit of a clean energy economy,” said Sean Ewart, Hochul’s deputy secretary for energy, highlighting the potential for new renewables to insulate ratepayers from volatile swings in fossil fuel prices. [No amount of new renewables can do that.]

“But we also know that we are operating in a crucible right now,” Ewart added. “We are facing a convergence of historic challenges that threaten to stall the progress we have fought so hard to achieve: shattered supply chains, persistent inflation, interest rates that won't come down and a federal government that is actively attempting to disrupt the economic foundations of this industry.”

Ewart highlighted the recent NYSERDA awards to renewable and storage projects, the energized Champlain Hudson Power Express transmission line and the state’s pole position on community solar. He highlighted the state’s new planning process that aims to provide a pathway to build new power generation.

That plan will “supercharge the state's ability to plan, procure and build,” Ewart said. — Marie J. French

Here’s what we’re watching this week:

WEDNESDAY

— Environmental groups hold a rally ahead of a Department of Public Service technical conference on data center issues, noon, Albany.

— The New Jersey Board of Public Utilities meets.

AROUND NEW YORK

— LETTER: Environmental groups call on New York’s congressional delegation to scrutinize the $42 million in federal funding given to Williams Cos. to develop the Constitution pipeline.

— The Buffalo News looks at environmental and energy issues in the governor’s race.

3RD CIRCUIT DENIES WILLIAMS' NESE APPEAL — POLITICO's Mona Zhang: The 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals has denied an appeal from Williams Cos. after the court vacated a key permit issued to the pipeline project by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection.

A FORCE BEHIND DEMS' 'ALL OF THE ABOVE' SHIFT: The Democratic governors of Massachusetts, Connecticut and New York have all opened the door for more natural gas amid mounting concerns about energy costs.

But the governors have also gotten a nudge — and political cover — from an industry group called Natural Allies for a Clean Energy Future, which claims it helped soften past skepticism to natural gas from Govs. Kathy Hochul of New York and Maura Healey of Massachusetts and emboldened support from Gov. Ned Lamont of Connecticut.

Their supposed secret? Polling and influential surrogates.

“This polling data can change the hearts and minds of our governors for sure,” said Natural Allies Executive Director Susan Waller at an industry conference in April, according to audio of the event obtained by POLITICO and first reported by media outlet The Lever. “What happened is they had their pollsters call our pollster and sit down and go through it.”

Spokespeople for the three governors downplayed any influence from Natural Allies’ efforts, which also include tapping state-level voices such as former Lt. Gov. Bob Duffy (D) in New York. The group, which represents several major natural gas production and pipeline companies, and some associated labor unions, also has former Democratic officials on its advisory committee like former Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) and former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D).

Waller said “within weeks” of a meeting on the group's polling with the governor’s representatives last year Hochul embraced an “all of the above” strategy.

Hochul’s office disputed that theory.

“While the Governor's office meets with diverse stakeholders on many issues, ultimately, the Governor does what she feels is best for New Yorkers and is not influenced by polls,” said Hochul spokesperson Ken Lovett. He declined to comment on any specific meetings.

Waller also highlighted the governor’s ultimately successful push to weaken New York’s climate law in a way that benefits natural gas in the state’s budget this year.

A spokesperson for Healey’s office said they could not confirm any meetings with Natural Allies representatives took place. And a spokesperson for Lamont’s office was similarly dismissive of the group’s influence.

“Though Natural Allies did share materials with the Governor’s office — as many advocacy groups across the spectrum of issues do — it did not impact the Governor’s thinking on the topic,” said Lamont spokesperson Cathryn Vaulman.

All three governors have backed natural gas as a key component of their states' energy mix.

Hochul denied permits for gas plants when she first took office, but she has since approved a controversial new pipeline and embraced an “all of the above” approach to energy, including gas.

Healey opposed pipelines as attorney general a decade ago. But she wrote a letter to U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright earlier this month pleading for swift approval of a gas pipeline.

And Lamont has emphasized the role of gas in Connecticut. He texted former U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), Natural Allies co-chair, thanking him for an op-ed defending the governor’s embrace of gas, according to both Waller and the governor’s office.

Broadly, the laser focus of politicians on addressing affordability concerns has led many Democrats to moderate on gas. At the same time, the Trump administration has made it more difficult for states to pursue renewable energy — especially offshore wind.

That’s led many Northeast governors to embrace both nuclear and gas to boost supply and address rising costs. The shift has faced opposition from environmental groups, who argue increased reliance on gas undermines emissions reduction efforts and exposes consumers to volatile price swings. Natural gas is primarily composed of methane, a potent planet-warming pollutant.

Waller said in a written response to questions that she was proud of her group’s efforts to “educate and inform policy leaders” but said “it’s very clear to anyone watching the news why these governors and many others from both sides of the political spectrum are moving to a more pragmatic position on this issue.” — Marie J. French

HEATING OIL RELEASED — POLITICO’s Mike Soraghan: The Trump administration announced Wednesday that it will release up to one-third of the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve in a bid to lower the cost of the fuel as winter looms — and as Maine’s bitter Senate race hangs in the balance.